Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that divided the country and caused turmoil, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in universities but hardly any politicians or advocates want to engage with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. Each authors two essays that strive for neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and social data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates encompass identity markers, levies, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unification but refuse increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but all factions has got important lessons to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
